The beef industry has never been integrated like much of the pork production or all of the chicken raisers. The various sectors compete horizontally with each other and vertically with other segments of the supply chain. The USDA July inventory was a reminder of the decline in the number of cattle in the country and a preview of the struggles to come.
Industry growth happens for a reason. Profit margins are plentiful and rising prices are signaling the need for more product. The industry responds by producing more product. Nothing is more exciting than the hustle and bustle caused by growth.
The beef industry is in decline. Some feeding operations have closed and some beef plants are dark. Both cattle feeding and beef processing are plagued with over capacity. The nation's cattle herd is shrinking and with it will be tough times for all but the breeders. Oversized facilities will be competing with each other to fill their needs. In the process some more closures may be necessary.
The breeder has not been squeezed by over capacity. Breeders have survived the past few years in good shape and will be benefited by the upcoming shortage of cattle. However, expanding the breeding herd is not as easy as adding a few more pens to a feedyard or killing a few more hours in the beef plant. Urban sprawl and alternative cropping options are taking land away from the breeder and reviving the breeding herd is not an easy task. Expansion requires more subtle changes like fertilizer to increase carrying capacities on grassland.
In the meantime, stocker operators, feeders, and processors will be left to scramble and compete for the dwindling supply of cattle. Competing for a fixed supply that is inadequate forces parties to outbid the other in order to fuel the needs of the physical facilities. The net result is smaller to non existent margins for most.
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