Sunday, July 18, 2010

Flawed Science & Manipulated Numbers:

Flawed Science & Manipulated Numbers:
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The ethanol industry was an early and strong supporter of President Obama and he hasn't forgotten it. The much delayed change to the blend level of ethanol in gasoline is sitting on the horizon for determination. The subsidy for ethanol is before Congress as well as the review of the excise tax placed on foreign ethanol shipped to this country. Never has an energy policy moved so logically awry and never has the government run so afoul of economic fundamentals in pursuit of a political objective. The corn based ethanol program will be a case study for government incompetence for years to come.

Government officials are not unaware of the flawed science they are using to support policy. Study after study have confirmed the failure of ethanol to save energy and the impact ethanol has had on raising food cost for all consumers. This has not been a trade off, but has squarely caused a net harm judged purely on the economics. Government officials have reacted by cooking the books and revising downward the energy requirements for corn use in ethanol plants and raising the benefits of ethanol in gasoline. No one wants to admit support for a program that doesn't prove up so the easiest solution is to change the values used in the inputs and outputs until the program proves a benefit. The problem is there is no support among independent researchers.

Congress has recognized the inability of the ethanol industry to move away from corn and develop cellulosic sources for feedstocks so they have reduced the percentage of cellulosic inputs required for the coming years. Alternative energy sources are needed and the list of possibilities is a long one but somewhere along the way there is a need for economic justification of the cost and benefits.

Any industry must have sound fundamentals. The nation's ethanol plants have already gone through one reorganization. It time to stop and get it right before moving forward.


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