Sunday, July 18, 2010

Government in the Market -- A Recipe for Disaster

Government in the Market -- A Recipe for Disaster
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Producer A markets one pen of cattle a year. The quality is excellent and the marketing weight is 1,300 lbs.. Producer B markets a pen of similar cattle each week year around. Producer B enters into a marketing agreement with a local processor. Producer B earns a $1 cwt. premium to the market under the marketing agreement. Is Producer A entitled to the same price?

The question of equity in markets is as old as the markets themselves. The question is not only should every animal of similar quality be compelled by government to bring the same price, but also the broader question of rights of parties to engage in contracts binding the parties to various and diverse price arrangements.

An attempt by government to mandate price for all cattle of similar quality sold at a similar time is a form of price control. Any cattle feeder with memories of Nixon's price freeze in the 1970s will understand the meaning of government control of pricing. It is a recipe for disaster and will result in the opposite of free markets and open price discovery.

Banning packer feeding, formula contracts, or forward contracting is the first step to eliminating the freedom of choice that guides commerce creating efficiency and lowering food cost for all consumers. There will be no competition for best price if every best price is matched by a government order awarding the same price to all producers. If a producer is able to convince a processor of a benefit from a certain group of cattle, and the packer awards a premium, it doesn't even matter if the benefit is real or perceived.

Flipping the equation over, there is little motivation for processors to pay formula contractors a higher price than cattle might bring in the open marketplace. This logically confirms the fact that any premiums are earned and deliver added value.

Packers and Stockyards have recently issued a new directive intended to deliver more equitable pricing to producers. This is a comment period and it is important for the cattle industry to hold on to the existing price discovery mechanisms. Turning fair pricing over to the government is bad for everyone and has been proven time and time again.

Flawed Science & Manipulated Numbers:

Flawed Science & Manipulated Numbers:
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The ethanol industry was an early and strong supporter of President Obama and he hasn't forgotten it. The much delayed change to the blend level of ethanol in gasoline is sitting on the horizon for determination. The subsidy for ethanol is before Congress as well as the review of the excise tax placed on foreign ethanol shipped to this country. Never has an energy policy moved so logically awry and never has the government run so afoul of economic fundamentals in pursuit of a political objective. The corn based ethanol program will be a case study for government incompetence for years to come.

Government officials are not unaware of the flawed science they are using to support policy. Study after study have confirmed the failure of ethanol to save energy and the impact ethanol has had on raising food cost for all consumers. This has not been a trade off, but has squarely caused a net harm judged purely on the economics. Government officials have reacted by cooking the books and revising downward the energy requirements for corn use in ethanol plants and raising the benefits of ethanol in gasoline. No one wants to admit support for a program that doesn't prove up so the easiest solution is to change the values used in the inputs and outputs until the program proves a benefit. The problem is there is no support among independent researchers.

Congress has recognized the inability of the ethanol industry to move away from corn and develop cellulosic sources for feedstocks so they have reduced the percentage of cellulosic inputs required for the coming years. Alternative energy sources are needed and the list of possibilities is a long one but somewhere along the way there is a need for economic justification of the cost and benefits.

Any industry must have sound fundamentals. The nation's ethanol plants have already gone through one reorganization. It time to stop and get it right before moving forward.


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